Let’s make up a scenario. Pitcher A takes the mound and absolutely dominates the opposing lineup. All of his pitches are working, he is racking up the strikeouts and allowing only a handful of runners on base. Unfortunately, his own lineup is having the same kind of trouble with the opposing pitcher and the game is locked in a scoreless tie going into the top of the eighth inning. Pitcher A strikes out two batters before allowing a bloop double. There is a runner at second with two outs when the next batter hits a ball through the third baseman’s legs and the runner scores the unearned run. Pitcher A’s team gets shutout and he is tagged with the loss as his team loses 1-0. His night ends with him pitching 8 innings allowing one unearned run on 3 hits and striking out 11.
Pitcher B is getting knocked around by the other team, but survives five inning giving up five earned runs. Luckily for him, his team has crushed the ball all game long to the tune of seven runs in the first five innings. When he leaves the game his team leads 7-5 and the game ends with the same score. He gets the win pitching 5 innings allowing 5 earned runs on 9 hits, striking out 3 and walking 4.
Clearly Pitcher A pitched more effectively, yet he was given the loss because his offense did not support him. Pitcher B got the win because of his offense. Why should pitchers be penalized by a lack of run support when they pitch well? Pitcher wins are the most useless baseball statistic for this reason.
How are pitching wins assigned?
To get a win a starting pitcher must pitch a minimum of five innings and his team must take a permanent lead while he is pitching. A relief pitcher gets a win if he is the pitcher when his team takes the permanent lead. The “old school” way of thinking judges a pitcher’s effectiveness by their win-loss record but it is time to look beyond that. A pitcher’s win-loss record shows a very small part of a pitcher’s season. A prime is example is New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom this season.
Jacob deGrom’s Superb Season
Simply put, deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball in 2018. He led major league baseball with a 1.70 ERA, the lowest since 2015. He struck out 269 batters in 217 innings, finishing second in strikeouts and Ks/9. His 9.6 WAR was second among pitchers and he led the league in win probability added. This resume would be enough for a unanimous Cy Young award except for one thing; deGroms’s record was a pedestrian 10-9. Now this shouldn’t matter, but many of the old school voters for the award do not think a pitcher with a 10-9 record should be named the best pitcher in the league. People are putting too much stock in a useless statistic. A pitcher’s job is to prevent runs and deGrom was historically good at that in 2018, becoming just the 7th pitcher since 1933 to throw over 215 innings with a 1.70 ERA. He gave up four runs in one start and had a record 29 straight starts allowing three runs or less. He did his job of preventing runs. deGrom or any pitcher has no control over his offensive support. Pitchers should not be penalized for a mediocre offense come award season. This video of ESPN’s Michael Wilbon is an example of this old school mentality:
Consider this:
If the Mets scored 4 runs in each of deGroms’ starts he would be 30-0
If the Mets scored 3 runs in each of his starts deGrom would be 25-1
If the Mets scored just 2 runs in each of his starts deGrom would be 20-6
These numbers are incredible and Michael Wilbon and others would be singing deGrom’s praises if he had any of the above records.
It’s Time to Look Past Wins
This is the information age for baseball. Analytics and sabermetrics have changed the way players are valued and front offices now put little stock in the traditional statistics. Jacob deGrom has earned the Cy Young. It is not an award for the Mets offense, it is an award for the best pitcher in baseball this season, and that pitcher was deGrom.
Stats from baseball-reference.com
Wilbon video from ESPN
Full Count 